Abstract
The success of hydrogen vehicles will depend on consumer behavior as well as technology,
energy prices and public policy. This study examines the sensitivity of the future market shares
of hydrogen-powered vehicles to alternative assumptions about consumers’ preferences. The
Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies model was used to project future
market shares. The model has 1,458 market segments, differentiated by travel behavior,
geography, and tolerance to risk, among other factors, and it estimates market shares for twenty
advanced power-train technologies. The market potential of hydrogen vehicles is most sensitive
to the improvement of drive train technology, especially cost reduction. The long-run market
success of hydrogen vehicles is less sensitive to the price elasticity of vehicle choice, how
consumers evaluate future fuel costs, the importance of fuel availability and limited driving
range. The importance of these factors will likely be greater in the early years following initial
commercialization of hydrogen vehicles.