Abstract
In this chapter we address the questions of whether and how enough biomass could
be produced to make a material contribution to global energy supply on a scale and
timeline that is consistent with prominent low carbon energy scenarios. We assess
whether bioenergy provision necessarily conflicts with priority ecosystem services
including food security for the world’s poor and vulnerable populations.
In order to evaluate the potential land demand for bioenergy, we developed a set of
three illustrative scenarios using specified growth rates for each bioenergy sub-sector.
In these illustrative scenarios, bioenergy (traditional and modern) increases from 62
EJ/yr in 2010 to 100, 150 and 200 EJ/yr in 2050. Traditional bioenergy grows slowly,
increasing by between 0.75% and 1% per year, from 40 EJ/yr in 2010 to 50 or 60 EJ/
yr in 2050, continuing as the dominant form of bioenergy until at least 2020. Across the
three scenarios, total land demand is estimated to increase by between 52 and 200
Mha which can be compared with a range of potential land availability estimates from
the literature of between 240 million hectares to over 1 billion hectares.
Biomass feedstocks arise from combinations of residues and wastes, energy cropping
and increased efficiency in supply chains for energy, food and materials. In addition,
biomass has the unique capability of providing solid, liquid and gaseous forms of modern
energy carriers that can be transformed into analogues to existing fuels. Because
photosynthesis fixes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, biomass supply chains can be
configured to store at least some of the fixed carbon in forms or ways that it will not be reemitted
to the atmosphere for considerable periods of time, so-called negative emissions
pathways. These attributes provide opportunities for bioenergy policies to promote longterm
and sustainable options for the supply of energy for the foreseeable future.
