Abstract
The effect of three environmental conditions: 1) thickness of organic soil, 2) snow depth, and 3) soil moisture content or water table height above and below the soil surface, on active layer thickness (ALT) are investigated using an ensemble of 1D thermal hydrology models. Sensitivity analyses of the ensemble exposed the isolated influence of each environmental condition on ALT and their multivariate interactions. The primary and interactive influences are illustrated in the form of color maps of ALT change. Results show that organic layer acts as a strong insulator, and its thickness is the dominant control of ALT, but the strength of the effect of organic layer thickness is dependent on the saturation state. Snow depth, subsurface saturation, and ponded water depth are strongly codependent and positively correlated to ALT.
