Abstract
More severe summer heat waves and droughts in the US Midwest and other regions due to climate change, along with changes in population distribution, pose risks for electricity shortages. Options are available for reducing these vulnerabilities. Costs and benefits of these options can be determined using a coupling of disparate analytical tools such as those that determine population allocation and climate variables to electricity service areas; tools that establish ranges of electricity demand and supply limitations and their modification in response to technological advances; and those that link water variables with power plant outages. A coupled system of this nature was used to examine the combined effects of heat wave and drought in the Midwest. Additionally, three adaptation scenarios based on changes in supply and demand for the greater Chicago, Illinois area were explored. We find that due to projected population changes in the region, the total number of metered customers approximately doubles by 2054, and that total electricity use increases 72% due to the population increase along with increases in maximum summer temperatures and frequency of heat waves in the region. Concomitantly, low availability of water during drought conditions, and high temperature effluent discharges during heat waves and higher overall temperatures, threaten operations for 30% of current power plant capacity reducing the supply at times of peak demand. As exhibited in one of the three adaptation scenarios, these conditions lead to an electricity supply deficit by 2054 and rapidly declining capacity margins during prior decades. However, technology additions, and changes in utility peak-period rates are available to modify customer demand substantially after 2024. Additionally, many water-cooled power plants near the end of their operational lives are projected to be replaced by more water-efficient generation.
