Abstract
Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated.
The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions
of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed
by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured
in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced
the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as
uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body
retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8,
1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24
and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer
from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For
the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder
content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43
in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of
EURADOS.
