Abstract
This paper presents a physically-based, empirically calibrated model for estimating irradiation-induced transition temperature shifts in reactor pressure vessel steels, based on a broader database and more complete understanding of embrittlement mechanisms than was available for earlier models. Brief descriptions of the underlying radiation damage mechanisms and the database are included, but the emphasis is on the model and the quality of its fit to U.S. power reactor surveillance data. The model is compared to a random sample of surveillance data that were set aside and not used in fitting and to selected independent data from test reactor irradiations, in both cases showing good ability to predict data that were not used for calibration. The model is a good fit to the surveillance data, with no significant residual error trends for variables included in the model or additional variables that could be included.