Abstract
This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models.
Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV’s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers’ attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for
electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.