Abstract
Most scientific assessments for adaptation and risk reduction in the context of climate
change use bio-geophysical scenarios of climatic change. However, scenarios for
socioeconomic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive
capacity, are often lacking. This paper focuses on whether and how scenarios could
also be used for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the
goals and functions of scenarios and reflects on the current debate around shared
socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and scenarios at the global level. It examines the
options and constraints of scenario methods for risk, vulnerability and adaptation
research in the light of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used
to explore and illustrate the opportunities and current constraints: firstly, the global
WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators and, secondly, a local
participatory scenario development process, showing a qualitative approach. The
juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative local
approach provides insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be
applied in vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. Finally, conclusions are drawn on
the opportunities and constraints of scenarios for vulnerability research. In addition
lessons for SSPs discussion and research challenges are presented.