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Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle...

by Sarah Kapnick, Thomas Delworth, Moetasim Ashfaq, Sergey Malyshev, P.c.d Milley
Publication Type
Journal
Journal Name
Nature Geoscience
Publication Date
Page Numbers
834 to 840
Volume
7
Issue
7

The intriguing ‘Karakoram Anomaly’ of glacial mass enhancement in the Karakoram region
contrasts with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas. Unfortunately, scientific inquiries
regarding the meteorological mechanisms that may control these observed differences in multidecadal
regional glacial variability are limited by the paucity of meteorological monitoring
systems in this harsh and remote environment. We use a set of high-resolution climate model
experiments from 1861-2100 coupled with the latest available observing systems to show that
these mountains exhibit distinct hydrological seasonal cycles and resulting climate change
signatures. The Karakoram has uniquely experienced enhanced snowfall during the winter
months, which has offset any summertime losses, resulting in little change in annual snowfall.
Due to high annual variability and non-monotonic trends, the climate signals are only detectable
with long and continuous records. These results provide compelling evidence for a reexamination
of theories relating to future hydrologic and glacial change in the region.