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Validation tests of an improved kernel density estimation method for identifying disease clusters...

by Qiang Cai, Gerald Rushton, Budhendra L Bhaduri
Publication Type
Journal
Journal Name
Journal of Geographical Systems
Publication Date
Page Number
1
Volume
13
Issue
X

The spatial filter method, which belongs to the class of kernel density estimation methods, has been used to make morbidity and mortality maps in several recent studies. We propose improvements in the method that include a spatial basis of support designed to give a constant standard error for the standardized mortality/morbidity rate; a stair-case weight method for weighting observations to reduce estimation bias; and a method for selecting parameters to control three measures of performance of the method: sensitivity, specificity and false discovery rate. We test the performance of the method using Monte Carlo simulations of hypothetical disease clusters over a test area of four counties in Iowa. The simulations include different types of spatial disease patterns and high resolution population distribution data. Results confirm that the new features of the spatial filter method do substantially improve its performance in realistic situations comparable to those where the method is likely to be used.