Abstract
Understanding the diverse PHEV purchase behaviors among prospective new car buyers is key for
designing efficient and effective policies for promoting new energy vehicle technologies. The ORNL MA3T model developed for the U.S. Department of Energy is described and used to project PHEV purchase probabilities by different consumers. MA3T disaggregates the U.S. household vehicle market into 1458 consumer segments based on region, residential area, driver type, technology attitude, home charging availability and work charging availability and is calibrated to the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook. Simulation results from MA3T are used to identify the more likely
PHEV buyers and provide explanations. It is observed that consumers who have home charging, drive more frequently and live in urban area are more likely to buy a PHEV. Early adopters are projected to be more likely PHEV buyers in the early market, but the PHEV purchase probability by the late majority consumer can increase over time when PHEV gradually becomes a familiar product. Copyright Form of EVS25.