Abstract
Amplification of the hydrological cycle, as a consequence of global warming, is forecast to be manifest not only by alterations in total annual precipitation, but also through more extreme precipitation regimes characterized by larger rainfall events and more severe intervening drought periods. Based on past studies and theory, we present a conceptual framework for predicting the consequences of this projected change in intra-annual rainfall patterns for terrestrial ecosystems arrayed along a broad gradient in water availability. More extreme rainfall regimes are predicted to increase the occurrence of periodic soil water stress in mesic ecosystems due to prolonged dry periods between rainfall events. In contrast, xeric ecosystems may exhibit the opposite response because a shift to a greater proportion of rainfall delivered in large precipitation events will result in reduced proportional evaporative losses per storm event and greater soil water storage, alleviating soil water stress for longer periods of time. Hydric ecosystems may experience reduced periods of anoxia if intervals between rainfall events increase. This contingent effect of the overall soil water balance on ecosystem responses will likely cascade through all hierarchical levels of ecological processes and interact in ways currently unknown with related global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric temperatures and CO2 concentrations. Thus, multi-factor comparative experiments and systems modeling approaches are needed to more fully understand and forecast the potential ecological consequences of this underappreciated aspect of climate change.
