Abstract
Permafrost thaw and the subsequent mobilization of carbon stored in previously frozen soil organic matter (SOM) would be a strong positive feedback to climate1. As the northern permafrost region experiences double the rate of warming as the rest of the Earth2, the vast amount of carbon in permafrost soils3 is vulnerable to thaw, decomposition and release as atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, we employ a process-based model simulation experiment to assess the net effect of this so-called “permafrost carbon feedback” (PCF) in recent decades. Results show a wide-spread increase in the depth to permafrost between 1990 and 2006, with simulated active layer thickness (ALT) capturing the mean and spatial variability of the observational data. Analysis of the simulation experiment provides an estimate of a 2.8 mm/yr increase in permafrost depth, which translates to 281 TgC/yr thawed from previously frozen SOM. Overall, we estimate a net GHG forcing of 534 MtCO2eq/yr directly tied to ALT dynamics, while accounting for CO2 (562 MtCO2eq/yr) and CH4 (52 MtCO2eq/yr) release as well as CO2 uptake by vegetation (-80 MtCO2eq/yr). This net forcing represents a significant factor in the estimated 640 MtCO2eq/yr pan-arctic GHG source4, and an additional 6.9% contribution on top of the combined 7792 MtCO2eq/yr fossil fuel emissions from the eight Arctic nations over this time period5.
