Abstract
Land-use change (LUC) estimated by economic models has sparked intense international
debate. Models estimate how much LUC might be induced under prescribed scenarios and
rely on assumptions to generate LUC values. It is critical to test and validate underlying
assumptions with empirical evidence. Furthermore, this modeling approach cannot
answer if any specific indirect effects are actually caused by biofuel policy. The best way to
resolve questions of causation is via scientific methods. Kim and Dale attempt to address
the question of if, rather than how much, market-induced land-use change is currently
detectable based on the analysis of historic evidence, and in doing so, explore some
modeling assumptions behind the drivers of change. Given that there is no accepted
approach to estimate the global effects of biofuel policy on land-use change, it is critical to
assess the actual effects of policies through careful analysis and interpretation of empirical
data. Decision makers need a valid scientific basis for policy decisions on energy choices.
