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Systems Analysis of the Hydrogen Transition with HyTrans...

by Paul N Leiby, David L Greene, David C Bowman, Elzbieta Tworek
Publication Type
Conference Paper
Journal Name
Transportation Research Record
Publication Date
Page Numbers
129 to 139
Volume
1983
Conference Name
Transportation Research Board's Annual Meeting
Conference Location
Washington, Virginia, United States of America
Conference Sponsor
Transportation Research Board
Conference Date
-

The U.S. Federal government is carefully considering the merits and long-term prospects of hydrogen-fueled vehicles. NAS (1) has called for the careful application of systems analysis tools to structure the complex assessment required. Others, raising cautionary notes, question whether a consistent and plausible transition to hydrogen light-duty vehicles can identified (2) and whether that transition would, on balance, be environmentally preferred. Modeling the market transition to hydrogen-powered vehicles is an inherently complex process, encompassing hydrogen production, delivery and retailing, vehicle manufacturing, and vehicle choice and use. We describe the integration of key technological and market factors in a dynamic transition model, HyTrans. The usefulness of HyTrans and its predictions depends on three key factors: (1) the validity of the economic theories that underpin the model, (2) the authenticity with which the key processes are represented, and (3) the accuracy of specific parameter values used in the process representations. This paper summarizes the theoretical basis of HyTrans, and highlights the implications of key parameter specifications with sensitivity analysis.